Key Performance Indicators
Results per month
My fundamental experience with ice-hockey goes way back, to when I was 5-years old. I started playing ice-hockey at the age of five and looking 20-years forward, I can proudly look back on a time in the ice-arena, as a semi-professional ice-hockey player. I played on the Danish Metal League, alongside playing youth-games for the Danish national team.
The pure mathematic approach to betting has and will always be the correct approach for me. Below you can see the different points in my evaluation of my bets:
EV = Expected Value
Edge = Advantage over bookmakers on the bet (Value)
True Odds = The mathematical likelihood for the result
Bankroll management = Placement of the amount connected to EV, Edge and true odds
Direct info on the teams = information-hunt that can/will affect the result of a bet
Home/away strength = How good are the teams in home-games and away-games
Example on Value bet from my side:
At a ‘’coin flip’’ there are two options. Heads or tale -> which is a 50/50 (Odds 2.00), to be either heads or tale. Let’s say that a bookmaker is very generous and offers a bet on this exact coin flip. They then offer a 2.10 on heads (47% chance). We know from mathematical reasons, that the correct odds would be 2.00 on heads and we are hereby left with a odds on 2.10 that should be on 2.00.
In the long-run this would result in a profit and that is exactly the reason why it is important to highlight the potential advantage over the bookmakers.
Bankroll size and the expected bet size:
As a baseline, I start with 10.000 kr. Each month, where 1 unit equals 1% of my start bankroll. Whether it’s a poor or profitable month, it will not have an impact on the size of a unit. My minimum bet is 0,5 units and my max is 5 units. This depends on the value in the bet, the Edge over the bookmakers, true odds and information regarding the teams playing. It is not recommended to play with ‘’Flat unit bets’’ on my best, as this has shown to reduce the profit drastically, in regards to my bankroll management system.
Primary leagues to bets:
Here I will solely focus on the top leagues within ice-hockey. This will include the following leagues:
NHL (National Hockey League) – 31 different teams, with a total of 1.271 matches (October to April).
AHL (American Hockey League) – 31 different teams, with a total of 1.150 matches (October to April)
KHL (Kontinental Hockey League) 24 different teams, with a total of 775 matches (September to February)
After the initial tournament, there will be held ‘’play-offs’’ to find the respective winners of each league. Therefore, we have 3.196 matches in total without the play-off calculated in it. It will be during an 8-month long period. There will not be delivered bets for all games, although all games contain a potential value and is the key pillar to the number of bets.
TIME OF DAY FOR BETS:
As a baseline, my bets will be delivered around 9pm, every day. This is primarily due to the starting-time of my NHL and AHL games, which will be played during the night. In addition to that, I often have KHL games, that will be played in the afternoon and to maintain the best analysis for these games, the tips for upcoming games, will be held back until the current games have finished. This will contribute to the best distribution of my bets.
Primary bookmakers: I mostly use Nordicbet and Youbet, as they have the biggest and broadest offers + often providing the highest odds. Although other suppliers such as Bet365 can be used in a few bets, but this will be rare and will be highlighted.
Many different factors go along, when deciding if the choice of my bets contain a strong value, over the bookmakers, making sure to secure a solid long-term profit! I’ve managed to deliver long-term profit in multiple season, making the life for a bookmaker a bit harder. Live-sessions will at this point not be available in the business days, but potentially in the weekends.
I would highly recommend you to become a member of our fantastic Discord Forum, where debate will be happening and a broad knowledge of sport will be shared. Here you can get in direct contract with me, under the channel #P2K. Relevant information regarding my tips, will be shared on this channel.
At any rate, I am looking forward to welcoming you as a new part of the team, or should I say family? BettingFamily.